You Are Here: An Economic, Market & Political Lay of the Land

by Paul Hoffmeister, Portfolio Manager and Chief Economist

At the link below, you’ll find a compelling market commentary presentation from our September Advisor Series event. 

Discussion includes:
     • major macroeconomic indicators suggesting a recession is likely
     • reasons why those signals seem to have been incorrect so far
     • the major risks and uncertainties looming today

In sum, it appears that the confluence of historic government spending, the eruption of new AI technologies since early 2023, the Fed intervention in Spring 2023, and a strong labor market worked to prevent a recession up to this point. But recession threats persist.

The U.S. manufacturing and service sectors are relatively weak, and the labor market appears to be cracking. Since 1970, when the unemployment rate cycles higher, it tends to have a negative momentum to it and can continue for a prolonged period of time. As a result, weakening economic data and employment conditions are threatening equity markets, which themselves carry high valuations.

Will the commencement of a new Fed rate-cutting cycle stave off recession? It’s certainly possible. But, as we show with the last three rate-cutting cycles (2001, 2007, 2019), recent history isn’t on the Fed’s side.

Paul Hoffmeister is Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors (CEDA), and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund (EVDIX • EVDAX).

Camelot Event-Driven Advisors LLC | 1700 Woodlands Drive | Maumee, OH 43537 // C146  

Disclosures:
•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.
•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Event Driven Advisors can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.
•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.
•       Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC, is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC’s disclosure document, ADV Firm Brochure is available at http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/291798

Copyright © 2024 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, All rights reserved.

Sahm Rule Triggered – Equities Vulnerable

by Paul Hoffmeister, Portfolio Manager and Chief Economist

• The “Sahm Rule” has been triggered, suggesting that the US economy might already be in recession.

• Upcycles in unemployment can have significant momentum. During previous episodes since 1970 when the Rule was triggered, the unemployment rate has increased by a median of 1.6 percentage points twelve months later. This implies that today’s unemployment rate of 4.3% may increase to 5.9% by next summer.

• Upturns in unemployment like we’re seeing today have historically correlated with recession and weak equity markets.

It’s possible that the US economy is now in recession, at least according to the “Sahm Rule”, an obscure economic signal. 

The Sahm Recession Indicator, named after former Federal Reserve economist and current Chief Economist at New Century Advisors Claudia Sahm, “signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months." (St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank)

In terms of the headline numbers, the unemployment rate jumped more than expected in July to 4.3%, which is a significant increase from 3.7% at the beginning of the year and from 3.5% in July 2023. (Bureau of Labor Statistics) From the perspective of the Sahm Recession Indicator, the current three-month moving average has increased by 0.53 relative to the low in that moving average during the last year; and as a result, the Indicator suggests that a recession in the United States has likely already begun. 

We won’t know for a while if the economy is officially in recession today. It takes many months for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to officially declare any recession start dates. And, of course, there’s no guarantee that the Sahm Rule is correct right now. Even Claudia Sahm herself has recently cautioned: past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

In fact, she isn’t convinced that the Rule is correct this time, although the jump in unemployment is “disconcerting.” As she sees it, the increase in the unemployment rate may be more due to an increase in labor supply rather than weakening labor demand, and if so, it’s possible that the US economy is not yet in recession.

Notwithstanding, the Sahm Rule has a good track record that must be considered. Every time that it has been triggered since 1970, it has been correct in signaling the beginning of recession. 

If anything, the recent triggering of the Sahm Rule is a warning to policymakers at the Federal Reserve. As investors, our biggest concern is the momentum that a rising unemployment rate can have. Quite simply, during economic downturns, unemployment tends to rise for a while.

After analyzing the Sahm Rule and the unemployment data since 1970 (and excluding the unique Covid pandemic experience), we have found that once the Sahm Rule is triggered (i.e. its level exceeds 0.50 for the first time in an economic cycle), the unemployment rate increases twelve months later by a median of 1.6%. This would mean that the current unemployment rate will possibly increase to 5.9% by next summer. 

Chart of the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread (dotted white line), core PCE year-over-year inflation (orange line), and the U.S. unemployment rate (white line); recession periods highlighted in red. Source: Bloomberg.

This outlook is quite different from the Fed’s forecasts. In their June projections, the median expectation among Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents was that the unemployment rate would be only 4.2% by year-end 2025. 

The historical record of rising unemployment after triggering the Sahm Rule is just another reason why we believe that the Fed is currently behind the curve. But even more, we’re concerned that worsening employment will lead to weaker equity markets. In the past, an environment of persistently rising unemployment tends to correlate with a slowing economy, slowing earnings growth, and generally falling stock prices. Indeed, as the chart above illustrates, during the last 35 years, each upcycle in unemployment was associated with both recession and weak stock indices.

In sum, we view the recent triggering of the Sahm Rule and the recent jump in the unemployment rate as additional data points -- alongside the inverted yield curve, weak leading economic indicators and many other indicators -- that an economic recession is on the horizon, if not already here. Based on the historical evidence, we expect this year’s increase in unemployment to continue and in so doing will lead to further economic and equity market weakness.

Paul Hoffmeister is Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors (CEDA), and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund (EVDIX • EVDAX).

Camelot Event-Driven Advisors LLC | 1700 Woodlands Drive | Maumee, OH 43537 // B593

Disclosures:
•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.
•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Event Driven Advisors can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.
•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.
•       Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC, is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC’s disclosure document, ADV Firm Brochure is available at http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/291798

Copyright © 2024 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, All rights reserved.

Yield Curve Wants Rate Cuts

by Paul Hoffmeister, Portfolio Manager and Chief Economist

With recent economic reports showing inflation falling and unemployment rising, the Federal Reserve appears to be on the verge of cutting interest rates before the end of the year. 

Specifically, the core PCE inflation gauge shows that as of May, year-over-year inflation rose 2.6%. Inflation pressures had been steadily declining since reaching a high of 5.5% in 2022, but stalled briefly around 2.8% early this year. Now, confidence has grown that inflation’s decline has reasserted itself and is trending toward the Fed’s long-term goal of 2%. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

At the same time, the unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in June. After bottoming at 3.4% in early 2023, the Fed’s interest rate increases of the last two years are weighing on the economy. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Within the context of this recent data, Fed Chairman Powell told Congress last week that the United States is “no longer an overheated economy” and the “labor market appears to be fully back in balance”. (“US economy no longer overheated, Fed’s Powell tells Congress”, by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir, Reuters, July 9, 2024.) As a result, the fed funds futures market expects that, by year-end, the Fed will cut the funds rate by 50 basis points from its current 5.25%-5.5% to 4.75%-5.0%.

While we believe the dovish shift at the Fed is welcome news and important for markets and the economy, the recent upturn in the unemployment rate is particularly concerning because it suggests a high probability of a looming recession. 

According to the “Sahm Rule”, developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, when the unemployment rate rises at least half a percentage point (0.50%) above its low point in the past year, a recession has begun. What does this rule look like today? After the recent employment data, the Sahm Rule rose to 0.43%; very close to the 0.50% threshold.

Chart of Core PCE year-over-year inflation (orange line) versus the U.S. unemployment rate (white line); recession periods highlighted in red. Source: Bloomberg.

Simply looking at the last 25 years, the recent increase in unemployment looks similar to the months before the 2001 and 2008-2009 recessions. Today, there are almost 800,000 more people unemployed compared to a year ago, and with short-term interest rates currently in restrictive territory AS WELL AS the likelihood that the lagged effects of the last two years of tight monetary policy will weigh further on the economy, there appears to be an increasingly negative momentum in the economy. 

Some important questions today are how much momentum is there to the current economic slowdown? And, will the expected interest rate cuts quickly abate that momentum?

Chart of the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread (dotted white line), core PCE year-over-year inflation (orange line), and the U.S. unemployment rate (white line); recession periods highlighted in red. Source: Bloomberg.

Historically, the yield curve, especially the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread, has been a relatively useful leading indicator of economic activity. Today, it stands around -116 basis points. In our view, the story it currently tells is that an economic contraction is on the near-term horizon, and the Fed is arguably “too tight” -- by at least 100-125 basis points. 

Unfortunately, it’s generally expected that the funds rate will only be reduced by about 50 basis points by year-end. And according to the FOMC’s economic projections published last month, the median expectation among policymakers is that the funds rate will fall to 3.9%-4.4% by year-end 2025, which is a year and a half away.

Putting all the clues and evidence together, it’s welcome news that the Fed appears to be on the verge of cutting interest rates in the coming months because the economy appears to be slowing. And as we see it, the forward-looking yield curve seems to suggest that today’s negative economic momentum will be significant enough to push the economy into contraction (recession); so the rate cuts couldn’t come fast enough.    

Paul Hoffmeister is Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors (CEDA), and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund (EVDIX • EVDAX).

Camelot Event-Driven Advisors LLC | 1700 Woodlands Drive | Maumee, OH 43537 // B575  

Disclosures:
•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.
•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Event Driven Advisors can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.
•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.
•       Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC, is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC’s disclosure document, ADV Firm Brochure is available at http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/291798

Copyright © 2024 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, All rights reserved.

Unemployment, Recessions, and the S&P 500

by Paul Hoffmeister, Portfolios Manager and Chief Economist

Last month, we explained that interest rates were expected to stay higher for longer because inflation had become stubborn. Core PCE was holding near 2.8% in recent months, after declining nicely from 5.5% since 2022. As a result, the market had come to expect only one or two quarter point rate cuts by year-end, compared to as many as four or five at the beginning of this year. 

We also added that the Fed’s reaction function for deciding whether and to what degree to cut rates later this year will likely be predicated on the core PCE falling convincingly toward 2% and/or the unemployment rate jumping meaningfully higher than 4%. 

Last Friday, the unemployment rate increased to 4%; a level not seen since Q1 2022. From an economic and market perspective, the level may not be as important as the rate of change. A year ago during Q2 2023, the unemployment rate hovered around 3.6%. The reason that’s important is because, based on the Sahm Rule, it’s likely that the US economy will be entering recession if the rate soon reaches 4.1-4.2%. (According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the Sahm Rule “signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.")

While there has recently been some contradictory labor market data indicating that employment is actually increasing, we believe that the rising unemployment rate is closer to the truth and that the labor market and economy are weakening at the margins. In our view, this would be much more consistent with a slew of macroeconomic indicators and signals showing deterioration; such as the inverted yield curve, relatively weak leading economic indicators, cautious lending surveys, weak regional Fed data, and qualitative feedback published in the Fed Beige Book from economic participants across the country.

U.S. Unemployment Rate (recessions highlighted in red). Source: Bloomberg.

The chart above illustrates the unemployment rate since 1988 and periods of recession (highlighted in red columns). Indeed, upturns in the rate like we’re seeing today, strongly suggest an economic contraction on the horizon. 

Notwithstanding, why does the question of recession matter to investors? After all, some US stock market indices (and other foreign indices) have recently hit all-time highs, certain credit spreads are relatively tight, and credit market conditions are seemingly excellent. 

It’s relevant because economic contraction tends to correlate with not only slower earnings growth but also significant downside risk in equity indices. For example, within the context of the 2001 recession, quarterly earnings in the S&P 500 fell from $14.68 in Q3 2000 to $10.43 in Q1 2002. (Bloomberg) Within the context of the 2007-2009 recession, quarterly earnings fell from $24.55 in Q3 2007 to as low as $5.87 in Q1 2009. (Bloomberg) Based on the historical evidence, economic contractions can meaningfully impact the S&P 500. 

Naturally, if earnings decline, stock valuations and stock prices are threatened. Between Q3 2000 and Q1 2002, the S&P 500 lost nearly 28%. Between Q3 2007 and Q1 2009, it lost almost 56%.

S&P 500 Index (recessions highlighted in red). Source: Bloomberg.

A lot of attention is being paid on Fed policy, inflation and employment data. Of course, a 2024-2025 recession isn’t pre-determined. But the history of the last few decades suggests that a slowly deteriorating labor market, which is what we might be seeing now, raises the specter of recession and weaker equity markets.

Click Below to Register for:

CEDA’s Monthly Event-Driven Call!

2nd Tuesday each month. 2pm with 2PMs. 22 Minutes.

Paul Hoffmeister is Chief Economist and Portfolio Manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors (CEDA), and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund (EVDIX • EVDAX).

Camelot Event-Driven Advisors LLC | 1700 Woodlands Drive | Maumee, OH 43537 // B573 
 
Disclosures:
•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.
•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Event Driven Advisors can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.
•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.
•       Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC, is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC’s disclosure document, ADV Firm Brochure is available at http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/291798

Copyright © 2024 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, All rights reserved.

Higher for Longer; Early Signs of Pain

by Paul Hoffmeister, Chief Economist

Interest rates will stay higher for longer. Following its April 30-May 1 meeting, the FOMC made clear that inflation has not sufficiently fallen toward its 2% target. Combined with the strong labor market and relatively resilient economic growth, the Committee maintained that it’ll maintain its current 5.25%-5.5% fed funds target, while signaling economic and inflation data will steer the path of interest rates. There’s even some chatter that the Fed might need to raise interest rates if inflation exceeds near-term forecasts.

In a barrage of Fed speeches since the decision, some officials have given life to that scenario. Governor Michelle Bowman stated, “While the current stance of monetary policy appears to be at a restrictive level, I remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or reversed.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hinted at the possibility if inflation remained stubborn. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that while the economy ended 2023 in a good place, “…early 2024 inflation data has been disappointing to those who thought that the inflation fight was behind us.”

As a result, we’ve seen a major about-face in the Fed outlook since Chairman Powell surprised markets last December with his dovish pivot. Since then, the expectation by financial markets for where the funds rate will stand at the end of 2024 has jumped from 4%-4.25% to around 5%. The key development during the last five months has been the fact that the decline in inflation has slowed. In 2023, the core PCE inflation gauge fell from 4.9% to 2.9%; but this year, it’s stubbornly holding around 2.8%-2.9%. With the unemployment rate at 3.8%, stock indices near record highs, and credit spreads relatively tight, the Fed will remain focused on slowing economic growth further in order to also slow the current pace of price increases.

The Fed’s reaction function during the second half of this year will likely be predicated on where PCE and unemployment inflect. If core PCE broke below 2.8% and sufficiently trended to the low 2% range, then the Fed could finally pursue that dovish pivot. Another scenario for rate cuts might occur if unemployment broke above 4%; as a rate in the low 4% range would likely indicate the beginning of recession. Absent a meaningful decline in inflation or rise in unemployment, the Fed would likely need a major unraveling in financial market conditions -- such as a significant sell-off in stocks or widening in credit spreads -- to ignore stubborn inflation data and pursue rate cuts.

While the United States is treading water economically amidst the post-pandemic interest rate-hiking cycle, the most pronounced economic pain in the world is in China -- primarily in its real estate sector -- and now in Europe. Thus far, the UK, Ireland and Finland are in recession; France and Germany are seemingly teetering into contraction.

Not surprisingly in March, the Swiss National Bank was the first major, Western central bank to cut rates. And just last week, Sweden’s Riksbank followed with its own cut; and the Bank of England is signaling that it’s prepared to do so as well.

So, while the United States is seemingly holding up amidst today’s interest rate shock and the Fed is intent on keeping rates higher for longer, we’re seeing other central banks finally pivoting to relieve their respective economies from their multi-year chokehold.

Japan, the fourth largest economy in the world behind Germany, is also in recession today. Interestingly, the most acute effect of the Fed’s recent hawkish bias appears to be in the devaluation of the Japanese yen.

In early 2022, the yen traded near 115 per US dollar; today, it’s near 160. This major depreciation appears to be occurring in lockstep with Fed rate expectations. The weakness may indeed be caused by the “carry trade” where international traders are exchanging yen into dollars for a higher interest rate, not to mention increasing pressure on the weak Japanese economy from slowing growth externally (China and the United States are its two largest export markets). Given this currency-monetary policy relationship in recent years, it’s likely that Japan will continue to face its slow-rolling currency crisis as the Fed pursues its hawkish policy bias.

In sum, the effects of the global economy’s two-year interest rate shock is starting to show itself, with creeping recessions and emerging currency extremes. We’re seeing things “break” a little bit. Notwithstanding, US financial conditions are seemingly holding up so far, and with inflation refusing to slow down even more, the Fed is telegraphing that it’ll try to choke growth stateside a little longer to squeeze inflation further.

DIAL IN FOR OUR QUARTERLY
EVENT-DRIVEN CALL
3rd Wednesday of every quarter at 2:00pm EST

REGISTER FOR CALL

Paul Hoffmeister is chief economist and portfolio manager at Camelot Portfolios, managing partner of Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, and co-portfolio manager of the Camelot Event-Driven Fund  (tickers: EVDIX, EVDAX).

Camelot Event-Driven Advisors LLC | 1700 Woodlands Drive | Maumee, OH 43537 // B571
Disclosures:
•       Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels.
•       This material is intended to be educational in nature, and not as a recommendation of any particular strategy, approach, product or concept for any particular advisor or client.  These materials are not intended as any form of substitute for individualized investment advice.  The discussion is general in nature, and therefore not intended to recommend or endorse any asset class, security, or technical aspect of any security for the purpose of allowing a reader to use the approach on their own.  Before participating in any investment program or making any investment, clients as well as all other readers are encouraged to consult with their own professional advisers, including investment advisers and tax advisors.  Camelot Event Driven Advisors can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.
•       Any charts, graphs, or visual aids presented herein are intended to demonstrate concepts more fully discussed in the text of this brochure, and which cannot be fully explained without the assistance of a professional from Camelot Portfolios LLC.  Readers should not in any way interpret these visual aids as a device with which to ascertain investment decisions or an investment approach.  Only your professional adviser should interpret this information.
•       Some information in this presentation is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.
•       Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC, is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any certain degree of skill or training. Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, LLC’s disclosure document, ADV Firm Brochure is available at http://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/291798

Copyright © 2024 Camelot Event-Driven Advisors, All rights reserved.